Current state of the SEC: Where could it be going?

As the first half of the season has wrapped up, I wanted to come on here and share my thoughts on what has transpired so far within the SEC. While we’re at it, I will also be discussing my view on how this season could shape out for SEC championship contenders. With all of the craziness that has transpired the last few weeks, this season seems quite unpredictable. Lets try our best to predict the future (challenge impossible).

A lot to unpack here about what has happened within this conference in the last few weeks. Crazy upsets, teams looking dominant one week then looking rough 7 days later, and teams beginning to find their rhythm as the season progresses. The state of the SEC has never felt more up for grabs with contenders changing weekly. 

I think it all started Week 3 – with two games that were predicted to end very differently than they did. LSU vs South Carolina and Georgia vs Kentucky. Majority of fans expected both LSU and Georgia to handle business and win fairly easily, but both teams barely escaped alive. This was our first sign that maybe the SEC will have more competitive games than in years past. Fast forward to a week later where the narrative changed to Tennessee being a dominant threat, and Mizzou barely scratching out a win against Vanderbilt. Week 5 provided us with our first upset that came at the hands of Kentucky, beating a highly regarded Ole Miss team. We also got what we thought (still might be) game of the year between Georgia and Alabama, with Bama proving to not miss a beat post Saban. Oh, and we haven't even mentioned Texas, who hasn’t got into the meat of their SEC schedule but has still been playing at a championship level. Who else am I forgetting? Ah yes, Texas A&M. While the SEC seems to be beating itself up through 5 weeks, the Aggies seem to be flying under the radar with wins against Florida and Arkansas. In summary, through 5 games it seemed as if the legit contenders were Alabama, Texas, Tennessee, and Georgia (even though they lost). At the time, the gaps between the 4 teams I listed above compared to the rest of the conference seemed quite large. But week 6 loomed, and wow was the consensus wrong. 

Week 6. A week that will go down as possibly the biggest season altering weeks ever in the SEC. A week that everyone presumed was a chalk up in anticipation to the legendary slates to come. Once again, a lot to unpack here. As I stated above, this week has tremendous consequences that could follow / alter the season. We started the day in College Station with the Aggies looking for a statement win vs the #9 team in the nation, and we walked away thinking they could be contenders. Then we waltzed our way to Nashville (started watching in the 3rd quarter like the entire country) where Alabama, a week after looking like the pound for pound #1 team in the country, loses to Vanderbilt. Proving they might actually take a step back post-Saban, after all. After finally digesting what had taken place, it was time to check on Tennessee. You know, the team people were talking about as a possible SEC contender with a QB drawing a lot of Heisman praise? Oh yeah, they lost to Arkansas. While only putting up 14 points. What a turn of events that had taken place in what was supposed to be a boring week. After what seemed to be like a 4 team race to the finish, 2 of those teams suffered huge upsets. Not to mention Georgia already has a blemish to their record. 

Now that we have discussed the wildness that has transpired through 6 weeks, how does this second half go? I have my thoughts and theories. Will I be wrong? Probably, as I am a lot. But this could get interesting. Before I begin, let me start by saying 2 SEC losses will not get you to Atlanta. Though we have seen crazier things (literally 4 days ago) I just think there will be 3-4 teams fighting that are undefeated or have 1 loss. Once again, I will probably be wrong. Also, these teams below are ALL contenders. There is obviously a path for each of these teams to make it to Atlanta. I just feel we need some discrepancy between them.

Texas Longhorns

The consensus #1 team in the nation as of 10/10/24. So far they haven’t had to struggle, beating both Michigan and Mississippi state with ease. But their schedule will soon begin to get more dicey. I think this goes 1 of 2 ways for the longhorns. The whole country expects them to handle their business this weekend vs  OU, I do as well. I think it really comes down to the Georgia game for them. I'm viewing that game as a toss up for now. If the Longhorns win that matchup, I am locking them in for Atlanta. But if they lose that game, each game remaining will be that much more important and I believe they will drop 1 more. Could they beat Georgia and go on to lose 2 more? Sure. I just think the odds are highly in their favor if they walk out of that game with a W. As of today, I have them as the team with the highest odds to make the conference championship. 

Alabama Crimson Tide 

After coming off their worst loss in recent memory, the tide is now in do or die mode. Thankfully for them, they have the easiest schedule remaining of the contenders. But like we saw last week, anything is possible. The way they played Georgia 2 weeks ago, I just have to believe they won't have a blunder like they did against Vandy again. Two big games left on their schedule against Tennessee and LSU. Two teams are very difficult to gauge right now. But if I had to pick right now, I have them winning both. We will still be in wait and see mode when it comes to those 2 teams when it's time to play Bama. But for now, I think Alabama has the 2nd best odds to get back to Atlanta. 

Texas A&M Aggies

I know what you are thinking. Anonymous Aggie coming in to show his bias toward the Ags. I promise I'm not. After dismantling the #9 team in the nation, the narrative quickly flipped around the country in Texas A&M’s favor. Rat poison as a certain legend used to say. I think too many people aren't paying attention to the fact that they are 3-0 in the SEC with the majority of the league having 1 loss already. Tie that in with the fact that the rest of their schedule is favorable compared to others. I believe the Aggies biggest game will be against LSU, especially if the Tigers knock off Ole Miss this weekend. If you can beat LSU, you put yourself in a very comfortable spot with your two remaining games before Texas being at South Carolina and Auburn. There truly is a world where both the Aggies and Horns go into week 12 as the only two undefeated SEC teams remaining. Meaning they could both be in Atlanta a week later no matter the outcome of the game. But the Aggies still have a way to go before that conversation has merit. Lose to LSU, and you are in must win mode with Texas on the horizon. As of today, I have the Aggies with the 3rd best odds to make the SEC championship. (I hope I don't end up looking like a fool).

Georgia Bulldogs

Man, I would really like Georgia’s chances a lot more had they not lost to Bama (obviously). But they did. Now they simply cannot afford another loss. I would have them as a higher percentage to make it over Bama, but the remaining schedule for the dogs is drastically harder than the tide. Like I said for Texas, it truly puts a giant spotlight on that matchup in Austin. You walk out of that game with a win and you are right back in the hunt with Tennessee and Ole Miss still on the schedule. Georgia could very well win out the rest of the season. But with those 3 big games remaining, I have to put the other 3 teams above them in terms of likelihood to make the SEC championship. If anyone has the team to win out despite the schedule, it’s Georgia. 

Ole Miss Rebels

Let me start by saying the sole reason I don’t have LSU above them is because I believe the Rebels will beat the Tigers this weekend. If the alternative happens, Ole Miss is no longer in this conversation. But Ole Miss beating LSU doesn’t mean they are back in the hunt. It just means they live to see another day with Georgia and Arkansas still looming. I just don’t see a world where they win out. They are a contender for now, but not for long.

LSU Tigers

A very tough team to get a read on right now. Overall, they haven’t looked great and their schedule only gets harder, a lot harder. Just look at their next 4 games. Ole Miss, Arkansas, A&M, and Alabama. That is without a doubt the hardest stretch among the contenders. Not to mention they end the year with Florida and OU which are no gimmies. With the way the Tigers have been playing, I just don’t see them squeaking out of this season with less than 2 SEC losses. My opinion on them will change if they can get it done this weekend, but for now I don’t see a way they make the conference championship. 

Tennessee

A team whose hype went down the drain after the upset to the hogs, Tennessee’s route to the championship is now near impossible. What was once known as one of the easiest schedules in the SEC (minus the Georgia and Bama game), the Vols found a way to navigate it as difficult as possible. Before the season started, I think Vol fans would gladly take a series split between Georgia and Bama. Now, they no longer have that luxury. I’ll keep this simple, you might not lose both of those games, but you definitely aren't winning both. Making Tennessee my least likely of the contenders to make the SEC championship.

My Prediction

This is beyond premature, as we are only but halfway done with the season. But after going through every possible scenario, I think I have somewhat of a prediction. Obviously there are a million ways this could go. And I will not be surprised if any of the teams above represent the league in Atlanta. 

• I think Georgia wins out, knocking off #1 Texas in Austin.

• I think the Aggies and Horns go into Kyle Field with a chance at the conference championship on the line, and the horns win it. (I would be in a detrimental state).

• I think Bama wins out, showing their loss to Vandy was a mere blip.

So that gives us four 7-1 teams in conference play. All with head to head wins against each other respectfully. Leaving us with once again another Georgia vs Alabama SEC Championship.